Australian Dollar Risk Inches Towards Range High

                                                                      By Jamie

 “A 4th wave decline is probably complete at this week’s low and focus is on the 2011 high at 11080, and typical Fibonacci relationships; Wave 5 = 1 at 11153 and wave 5 = 61.8% of waves 1-3 at 11236.  These levels intersect the EW channel on March 7th and March 15th. Risk on longs can be moved to today’s low (10650). The current technical position is exciting for bulls as a 3rd wave may be underway from today’s low. If this assessment is correct, then expect the rally to accelerate in the next few days. A short term objective above 10844 is the 161.8% extension of the 10597-10754 rally, at 10905.”

Australian Dollar Outlook - 02/28/2012

The AUD is stronger this morning, currently trading around USD1.0750 after looking markedly weaker during our local trading session yesterday.

Australia: The explanation for the rally is the increased optimism in the market after Germany signed off on the second bailout package for Greece, as well as the second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) by the European Central bank taking place on Wednesday.

With renewed optimism comes increased demand for riskier assets, such as the AUD, with the heavy demand for our local currency seeing it rise almost 1% from yesterday's close. While many thought that yesterday's weakness was related to the uncertainty around the political stoush between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, price action with the USD/JPY was more likely the influencing factor.

We are hopeful that now a resolution has been reached in Canberra, that the government can now return the focus to running the country in an effective manner. There is no local data due for release during our trading session today, therefore we expect the AUD to remain in a fairly tight trading range, and follow equity markets as well as offshore developments.

Majors: Improved data out of the US has reversed earlier losses, causing a rebound in equity markets as the sentiment in the region continued to recover. It was housing data that provided the buoyancy, with pending home sales rising by 2% in January, well above the market expectations of a 1% rise.

Historical data was also revised upwards for the month of December. January's result sees the housing re-sale data the highest it's been in 2 years. This boosted the S&P500 above 1,370.58 for the first time since June 2008. It wasn't the same across the Atlantic Ocean, with equity markets in Europe retreating, despite the bailout agreement being signed by German officials.

Germany's DAX fell 0.2% and the FTSE 100 also closed down 0.3% at 5916. Oil prices have been a concern of late, as
many believe that the increasing price of the commodity will hurt global growth, especially in the US.

It was reported last week that the oil price had risen to a 10-month higher of USD125.00 / barrel, but prices have since declined back to be below USD110.00.

Meaning of Maha Mrityunjaya Mantra

                                                          ॐ  त्र्यम्भाकम  यजामहे , सुगंधिम  पुष्टिवर्धनम ,
                                                            उर्वारुकमिव  बन्धनं , मृत्योर  मुक्षीय  मामृतात l

"om tryambhakam yajamahe, sugandhim pushtivardhanam,
urvarukamiva bandhanan, mrityor mukshiya maamritat."

OM

Om is the absolute reality. It is said to be "Adi Anadi", without beginning or the end and embracing all that exists. Om is beyond any limit, transcendental, and indestructible. OM represents the wholeness of the universe and the eternal vibratory sound of brahman (the universal soul) that permeates it. Indeed, Om is called shabdabrahman, the sound-form of brahman. Om is a mystical or sacred syllable. The syllable is taken to consist of three phonemes, a, u and m, variously symbolizing the Three Vedas or the Hindu Trimurti or three stages in life (birth, life and death ). A-U-M represents the divine energy (Shakti) united in its three elementary aspects: Bhrahma Shakti (creation), Vishnu Shakti (preservation) and Shiva Shakti (liberation).

In upanishads and sutra:

Om consists of the three sounds a (a-kara), u (u-kara), m (ma-kara). A-kara means form or shape like earth, trees, or any other object. U-kara means formless or shapeless like water, air or fire. Ma-kara means neither shape nor shapeless (but still exists) like the dark matter in the Universe. When we combine all three syllables we get AUM which is a combination of A-kara, U-kara, and Ma-kara.

According to the Mandukya Upanishad

Om is both atman and brahman: it is the past, the present and the future, as well as all that transcends time.

In Purana

Aum or Om is the mystic name for the Hindu Trimurti, and represents the union of the three gods, viz. a for Brahma, u for Vishnu and m for Mahadev which is another name of Shiva. The three sounds also symbolize the three Vedas (Rigveda, Samaveda, Yajurveda).

Om is the mantra of assent. It means yes and affirms and energizes whatever we say after it. That is why all mantras begin with OM. OM is also the mantra of ascent and causes our energy to rise upward into the infinite. By reciting Om, a person gains access to the powers of the universe; and meditation on Om is said to lead to enlightenment and immortality. OM is expansive and increases the fire, air and ether elements, particularly ether. It also gives strength, protection and grace.

Tryambakam

Tryambak = trya + amba = three amba

‘Three Amba' are the three Shaktis (the power) signifyin

‘'will power' (iccha shakti)

power of work’ (kriya shakti)

power of wisdom (gyana shakti).

These three shaktis are the creators of this whole world, and the one who has these three is called tryambak.

Tryambak also refers to the three eyes of shiva as 'Trya' means 'Three' and 'Ambakam' means eyes. Three eyes of shiva also refer to fire, sun and moon.Maharshi Kapil defines these eyes as sattva, raja and tamo guna. So we can say that the one who is beyond all gunas is tryambak.

According to Astrologers, past, present and future are the eyes of the mahakaal tryambak. Thus it can be said that the one who exists in past, future and present,and is omniscient, omnipresent and omnipotent is tryambak.
In vedanta - chitta, ego and buddhi are the three eyes of Shiva. Yogis define 'A', 'U' and 'M' as eyes of shiva. Tryambak is the father of the three worlds - bhu, bhuva and svarga lokas (planes of existence). He is the lord of the three heavens created by the dominance of the three Gunas - Rajas, Satva and Tamas.

Yajamahe

By chanting the Maha Mrityunjaya Mantra we surrender to Lord Trayambak establishing a connection with Him. Here the root yaja means to sacrifice for the communion with divinity and yajamahe means ‘performing yagya’. Yagya is the tradition that follows from the Vedas. It is the act of offering oblations to propitiate a deity. Thus Yajamahe refers to the desire to make a connection with the lord who is the origin of light, nectar and life by sacrificing and offerings (havan samagri).

Sugandhim

'Sugandhim' refers to the fragrance of the flower that spreads in all directions. Similarly, He - The Supreme God is present in all the bhutas (modes of existence), in the three Gunas (nature of creation as being Satva, Rajas or Tamas), in the ten indriyas (five gyana-indriyas or senses and five karma-indriyas or organs of action), in all the devas (33 devas are the source of all illumination and enlightenment) and the ganas (hosts of demi-gods), He exists and pervades as the illumine atma (soul) and is their essence. He is spreading His fragrance all around and making us as fragrant as He is. Fragrance refers to the joy within Him. we all are bathing in His Fragrance, the real joy. Our self is true and pure as He is. No one can deteorite the true self.

Pustivardhanam

Pushti + vardhnam = pushtivardhanam

Tantric refers pushti as Shakti, In puranic language pushti is maya-( ). Philosphers (tatva chintak) refers it as ‘Nature’. Thus, here pushti indicates the shakti- the power - the nature and the one who expands/ enhances the pushti is called pustivardhanam. The one who transforms subtle forms into gross forms and expands the nature into many new forms by his creation is God. God is the sustainer of all beings who has created the entire creation starting from mahatatva (primordial state of matter/energy) to the individual parts. He is the sustainer of the world, the father of all.

Urvarukamiv Bandhnan

We bound by many diseases (approx 100 are in vedas) influenced (negative) by three doshas (imbalance of five elements earth, space, air, water and fire), fear of death, eight type of Agyana (ignorance) and the cycle of birth and death. We are living in the falsehood and are unable to perceive the all pervading God. We are bound by shadripu, the six demons of attachment, lust, greed, ego, anger and

Mrityormukshiya Ma Amritat

O God I wish to be free from the all negativities and to be in real joy. Please take me out of all weakness and the never ending cycle of birth and death. Free me from the fear of diseases and death for the sake of immortality (Moksha, Nirvana or final emancipation from re-birth).

ma amritat means 'please give me some Amritam (life rejuvinating nectar). It means that we are praying for some 'Amrit' to get out of the death inflicting diseases as well as the cycle of re-birth. and to be one with the supreme being, Shiva in the same way as the cucumber fruit (urvaru) gets separated from its stalk.

Australian Dollar Outlook - 02/23/2012 ;

                                        International Business Times

The Australian dollar has had a relatively quiet trading session overnight, despite
the political uncertainty created by Kevin Rudd's resignation as Foreign Minister late yesterday.

Australia: Housing data released in the US overnight was received quite well by the market, and as a result, commodity prices were pushed a little higher and the AUD found some buying interest.

However, the local unit is looking a little heavy this morning, and the ongoing speculation over the Labor leadership has the potential to add to AUD volatility in the short term.A number of forecasters are looking for a short term pull back in the AUD.

Yesterday's release of a HSBC Chinese purchasing manager's index wasn't overly encouraging, with a final figure of 49.7 in February, following on from a 48.8 figure in January. Any result below 50 is considered to be a sign of contraction. China is Australia's biggest trading partner and any sign of slowing growth within their economy will more than likely take some of the momentum out of the AUD's recent rally.

Majors: Developments in Europe continue to grab the international headlines. Despite the EUR130bio Greek aid agreement reached earlier this week investors remained concerned that the austerity measures that have been agreed for the Greek economy will be very difficult to implement.

Ratings agency Fitch cut Greece's credit rating to C from CCC, stating that a default by Greece is likely in the near term. The economic environment in the US continues to improve, albeit at quite a slow pace. US existing home sales increased by 4.3% in January - the highest figure in almost two years. In the UK, BoE minutes indicated that some members favour further quantitative easing, which sparked a sell-off in the GBP.

The Art of Exiting a Trade ; Richard Krivo, Trading Instructor

Most newer traders tend to concentrate on ways to enter a trade and place virtually all of their focus on that aspect of trading. While entries are important, experienced traders will agree that managing and exiting a trade will have a greater impact on the level of success a trader may achieve.

One of the most effective methods for exiting a trade is simply to employ a Risk Reward Ratio on the trade. By doing so, there is no question of when to exit.If the limit is hit, you are profitably out of the trade. If the stop is hit, you are out of the trade with a small, manageable loss. This plan is very straight forward and it eliminates the chance of your emotions taking control.

For example, if a trader were to employ a 1:2 Risk Reward Ratio on a trade (the minimum that we would recommend), and a 100 pip stop were set, then a 200 pip limit would be set. With that done, just let the trade run until you are either stopped out or limited out on the trade.

Here is another method that could be employed if a trader were trading multiple lots.

Using this scenario, a trader would open, let's say, two lots on a trade. At a predetermined level of profitability, perhaps 75 pips, one of the lots would be closed...thereby locking in that amount of profit. On the remaining lot, the stop would be moved to break even...the point at which the trade was entered. Then, should that lot move in the favor of the trader, the stop could be trailed periodically to continue to lock in profit. The worst that would happen on the second lot would be that if the trade would do an about face, the trader would be stopped out at break even...no gain on that lot but no loss either.Also, a trader could simply observe levels of support and resistance. As their trade is approaching levels of significant support or resistance, they could exit all or a portion of their position at that level, or perhaps simply tighten their stops. By so doing, should the pair hit the support/resistance level and retrace, a major portion of their profit would be protected and should the pair breakthrough and continue on, they would still be in the trade.

FOREX: US Dollar Slumps on China Rate Cut, Greek Bailout Deal Hopes

Talking Points

• Dollar, Yen Slump in Asia as China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50bps
• Eurozone FinMin Summit in Focus as Traders Wait for Greek Bailout Accord
• Risk Appetite Expected to Falter Again, Yielding Dollar Buying Opportunities

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen fell against their major counterparts as stocks rose in overnight trade, marking an improvement in risk appetite to start the trading week and sapping demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose 0.9 percent afterChina cut the reserve-requirement ratio for the country’s banks by 50bps effective February 24. The move increases the supply of loan-able funds by allowing banks to lend out a greater percentage of their deposits, reducing borrowing costs with the hope of stoking economic activity.

Optimism was compounded by hopeful anticipation of a final deal on the second Greek bailout package as Eurozone finance ministers gather for a meeting in Brussels today. Traders are betting the sit-down will culminate in the provision of €130 billion in EU/IMF funding to stave off a Greek default as a large tranche of maturing debt comes due on March 20. The accord must deliver on two elements: Athens has to iron out the terms of a bond swap with its private-sector creditors – a scheme meant to ease its debt burden by dismissing as much as 70 percent of what is owed and exchanging the rest for longer-dated paper – as well as put to rest EU officials’ concerns about implementation of new austerity measures.

The long history of flawed fixes to the debt crisis unveiled over the past three years suggests that the very existence of an accord is likely to prove initially supportive for risk appetite, regardless of its merits. This spells trouble for safe-haven currencies at least at the onset, but that is unlikely to last.

As we discussed earlier, a Greek default (even a disorderly one) is no longer the danger it once was considering EU banks borrowed enough capital through the ECB’s 3-year LTRO in December to assure a credit squeeze would probably not materialize. This means whatever EU officials come up with will not amount to a meaningful change in the existing fundamental landscape, with traders quickly shifting their focus back to the overall macroeconomic landscape.

On balance, it seems likely that this transition will prove negative for risk appetite. Economists’ forecasts suggest the Eurozone – collectively the world’s largest economy – will sink into recession this year, severely denting global performance expectations as a whole. Indeed, economists’ median world GDP expectations for 2012 have been sinking precipitously since early August. The reemergence of this stark reality is likely to be punishing for the Euro as well as sentiment-sensitive currencies like the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. With this in mind, we are looking for US Dollar buying opportunities to emerge in the days ahead.

Critical Level

     CCY                                            Support                                 Resistance 

  EURUSD                                        1.3104                                    1.3234

  GBPUSD                                        1.5791                                    1.5898  

Australian Dollar Outlook - 02/17/2012

The Australian dollar has risen almost a full US cent overnight to open at USD1.0750 this morning, up from USD1.0668 late Thursday.
Australia: The rise came after US economic data showed the number of people applying for unemployment benefits had fallen to its lowest point in four years, while the housing and manufacturing sectors continued to improve.

The Australian labour market also showed signs of improvement yesterday, with the headline employment surging 46.3k in January (seasonally adjusted), driven by a recovery in part-time employment after significant falls in November and December 2011.

Total employment was up 0.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y. Due to the improved employment numbers the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.2% and perhaps pushing the chance for a potential rate cut further out into 2012.

Majors: Positive momentum in the US labour market has continued with initial jobless claims falling to 348k from 358k last week. They are now running at the lowest level seen since March 2008. US housing also showed tentative signs of recovery with housing start rising to 699k in January.

US equities rallied of the back of the stronger data and positive sentiment with the Dow Jones rising 0.9% to 12898, the S&P 1.0% higher at 1357 and the Nasdaq 1.4% higher at 2958. European equities were slightly lower overnight with headlines early in the session casting doubt over whether EU leaders would agree a Greek bailout package by Monday.

The DAX was down 0.1% at 6752 with the FTSE 100 0.1% lower at 5885. Markets seem to be watching headlines closely and awaiting the EU decision on Greece early next week. Rumours have surfaced the

European governments are considering cutting interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using contributions from the ECB to close a financing gap in the second bailout programme.