For You Dad.. ❤ ♥ ❤

You know dad, looking back i realized something

and you what that is?

without you, i wouldn't be who i am, i'd be nothing

kind of like a pop without its fizz

you were there for when whever you could be

and when you couldn't

you did everything you could to support me

even if you said you shouldn't

you went out of your way

to do man of things for me

and i know you wouldn't have it anyother way

that i can see.

You spent your life teaching me, helping me, doing everything you could for me,

and everything that was said impossible, you proved wrong

that shows me the love you had for me

you did all this and more

as you sent me out in the world

afraid for me, but knowing i would be the man you set me out to be, and more

For that Father... Dad... daddy, i thank you

I love you so very much, more then you could ever imagine.

Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?

By John,

• Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?
• Euro: Easing Bond Auction Rates and Hope of a Greece Solution Offers Buoyancy
• British Pound Bows to Euro’s Rebound as 16 Year High Jobless Rate Unbalances
• Japanese Yen Slides as Risk Aversion Effort Curbed, But Not USDJPY
• Australian Dollar Tumbles, Steadies after Volatile but Nuanced Jobs Release
• New Zealand Dollar Plunges Immediately after Collapse in Inflation Pressure
• Gold Rises for 10th Time Since the Beginning of the Year – 13 Trading Days

Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?

There is a difference between a true advance and a mere relief rally. The former is anchored in capital flows and fundamentals and therefore has greater momentum for staying power. The latter is by definition and disposition temporary. The advance we are seeing in high-yield and fundamentally troubled assets is more appropriately labeled a reprieve in a dominant trend. For evidence we can look at market-based factors of conviction (or lack thereof). For our risk-benchmark S&P 500 Index, volume has topped out at around 675 million shares that consistently since the beginning of the year – significantly weaker than the turnover we witness through the previous six months. Furthermore, we note that gauges for the cost of risk (implied volatility, options, relative asset value) are exceptionally cheap. Alone, this wouldn’t be an issue, but when we pair it with the fact that the World Bank downgraded its global growth outlook and warned to prepare for the worst, rating agencies are preparing to claim Greece in default and leverage is hitting new heights; the contrast is too clear. So, while the dollar may slide for now, its run isn’t complete.

Euro: Easing Bond Auction Rates and Hope of a Greece Solution Offers Buoyancy

The euro advanced against nearly all of its counterparts Wednesday (with the exception of the Swiss franc) and subsequently put up its best performance against the benchmark US dollar since November 11th. This must be optimism…right? If we take a look at the fundamental developments through the past session, it would seem that the financial strain on the region is easing and therefore the outlook for the currency improving. Yet, nothing has really turned from negative to positive. Rather, we are seen conditions turn from negative to less negative. A good example of this is the outcome for the session’s bond auctions. This time around, we monitored the sale of 2.5 billion euros in Portuguese debt (in fact, this was the biggest auction since the government asked for its bailout last April). The rate on the three-month maturity was unchanged and it eased for the six-month bill (lower rates reflect greater confidence). This may seem a strong outcome for a country that was downgraded to ‘junk’ by Standard & Poor’s this past Friday, but the meaning is the same as for the others this week (France, Greece, Spain, EFSF) – the maturity is too short-term and therefore not a good gauge.

Everything that we see behind the euro’s fundamental performance speaks to relief from an oversold position rather than a renewed effort to add to outstanding European asset exposure. This is certainly supported by the COT figures in which we have seen a record level of speculative short interest in the futures market. Whether the euro continues its relief rally or not likely depends on whether risk trends maintain their buoyancy and hope in a Greece private bond position can be fed. There is heavy debate and speculation, and a deadline of a Monday Summit.

British Pound Bows to Euro’s Rebound as 16 Year High Jobless Rate Unbalances

Considering the euro’s financial troubles have dragged the sterling lower (by threatening an impending doom as the Euro Zone crisis starts its global spread with a layover in London first), it is only fair that a subsequent rebound for the shared currency would relieve pressure on the pound. Yet, when we measure the two European currencies against each other, we can see clearly who the outperformer was. EURGBP advanced for a second day. The pound’s performance was no doubt undermined by thedisappointing November employment figures released in the previous London session. Jobless claims rose for a 10th month by a smaller-than-expected 1,200 positions. Tame as it was, loss of jobs still brought the unemployment rate to a 16-year high 8.4 percent. Adding to that consumer confidence printed just off a series record low.

Japanese Yen Slides as Risk Aversion Effort Curbed, But Not USDJPY

With risk trends on the rise, the safe haven / funding-favorite Japanese yen is naturally on the retreat. In fact, the currency was down against all of its most liquid counterparts – with the exception of its fellow safe haven US dollar, with which it was unchanged. Interestingly enough, despite the pickup in risk trends, the commodity block (Aussie, kiwi and Canadian dollars) were lagging the performance of the European contingent. In fact, it would be its fallen-from-grace safe haven compatriot – the Swiss franc – that posted the largest rally. This is another factor that suggests relief from European fundamental fears are more influential now than a genuine revival in risk appetite.

Australian Dollar Tumbles, Steadies after Volatile but Nuanced Jobs Release

Trading news events can be dangerous. The Australian data released this morning reminds us of this risk. After absorbing a notable uptick in consumer inflation expectations (running at 2.8 percent versus 2.4 percent previously) without a hiccup, we came upon the jobs figures. Despite the staid nature of this market, the reaction to the unexpectedly sharp decline in the headline labor change for December (29,300 positions culled) was dramatic. The immediate tumble for the commodity currency, however, was quickly retraced shortly after the panic receded after traders realized the losses were isolated to part-time positions (53,700). Full-time jobs actually rose by 24,500 positions.

New Zealand Dollar Plunges Immediately after Collapse in Inflation Pressure

The Kiwi dollar gives its Aussie counterpart a run for its money as the most volatile currency in the still young trading session. With the help of a surprise 4Q consumer inflation index release, the New Zealand dollar was spurred into a quick 60 pips slide against the benchmark greenback in early Asia trading. The kiwi dollar has found much of its strength through its high yield (2.50 percent benchmark) and the belief that Governor Alan Bollard was determined to stand pat. Yet, that was when price pressures were still well above his tolerance band. According to the data, it is now below the desired threshold with a 1.8 percent clip. We’ll watch to see if the market starts pricing in cuts in Libor rates.

Gold Rises for 10th Time Since the Beginning of the Year – 13 Trading Days

Though it has been a slow run (what is running quickly in these market conditions), gold has nevertheless advanced 10 times since the beginning of the year. That is a significant figure when we consider that there have only been 13 active trading sessions since we entered 2012. A tame risk appetite advance does little to curb this particular safe haven, because the brand of confidence we are seeing buoy fundamentally-troubled currencies and growth-dependent assets does not tap the deeper concern of long-term, store-of-value concerns.

I'm The Girl...

I'm the girl who will put her head on your shoulder, not because she's sleepy, but because she wants to be closer to you...

I'm the girl who likes to be kissed in the rain, more than inside your bedroom or in an expensive resturant...

I'm the girl who says,"ok, but you owe me..." jokingly not because I actually want something, but because it means I get to spend more time with you...

I'm the girl you can take absolutely anywhere and I will (or at least try to) have fun because it means I am spending time with you...

I'm the girl who is incredibly picky, but when I find someone I like I want to spend the whole night curled up in their arms...

I'm the girl who never forgets all the sweet little things you do for me...

I'm the girl who actually keeps her body parts in her clothing in public... most of the time

I'm the girl who never gives up hope even when I tell others I have...

I'm the girl who once I let you into my heart, there's always a place there with your name on it. And even if we spend time apart, I'm the girl who never forgets you.

I'm the girl who loves to end a hug with a kiss...

I'm the girl who you can talk to about anything...

I'm the girl who laughs at your jokes...

I'm the girl who will have many inside jokes with you and will remember each one...

I'm the girl who will brag about you to all of my friends...

I'm the girl who will listen to you talk...

I'm the girl who really does want to be friends after a break up...

I'm the girl who loves it when you hug me for no apparent reason...

I'm the girl who loves it when you hug me from behind or kiss me on the forehead..

I'm the girl who loves you for you, and doesn't care what other people say about us...

I'm the girl who loves it when you introduce me to your friends as your girlfriend...

I'm the girl who loves the feeling when you take me by the hand without saying a word...

Twitpic - Share photos and videos on Twitter

Twitpic - Share photos and videos on Twitter

Silver in Possible Bearish Continuation; Swing Projection Targets 20.00

XAG/USD (Silver)

Silver is sliding sharply. A break below 33.00 was a signal that recent correction may be over. The 4H RSI also dipped below 30 establishing bearish momentum. If there is a pullback, the 33.00 should be anticipated as resistance for confirmation of bearish outlook at least in the short-term.
The bearish outlook in the short-term has support pivots near 28.50, then again near 26.10. The daily chart also shows a bearish stance as the market trades under the 200-day simple moving average. After the RSI tagged 30, it failed to push back above 60, reflecting maintenance of the bearish momentum. If it is pushed back below 40, a return of bearish momentum is seen, and then confirmed if it tags 30 again.
In this bearish scenario,  a swing projection (using the decline from near 44.00 2011 high, to the consolidation lows near28.50 instead of using the long tail seen in the hammer on 9/26), pivoted from consolidation high near 35.50, targets 20.00.
bear-trap: The consolidation was in an ABC manner, but there is still chance that consolidation is not over, and that the current bearish price action is only a dip before further consolidation. Considering this, the 20.00 target should be held off, and limited to 28.50 and most aggressively 26.10 for now. A break below 26.00 then adds impetus to the bearishcontinuation scenario.

Happy Trades!!

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 10.07.2011

                                                                  Happy Trades!!

Trading Week Outlook: Nov. 7 – Nov. 11

 Although much lighter on pivotal economic data, the trading week ahead will not be any less intriguing as headlines from the Euro-zone debt crisis continue to dictate the market’s direction and traders prepare for the next act of the Greek drama, while keeping an eye on the political situation in Italy.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    CHF- Swiss CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Swiss National Bank, Mon., Nov. 7, 3:15 am, ET.

The Swiss inflation gauge is forecast to increase by 0.3% m/m in October, same as the 0.3% m/m reading in September, while the yearly CPI measure remains near zero, at 0.5% y/y. With the euro breaking lower towards its recently established “floor” against the Swiss franc, the Swiss National Bank might need to refresh the market’s memory of its promise to do whatever it takes to defend the EUR/CHF 1.20 exchange rate level. Moreover, the SNB could even be prompted to raise the floor up to 1.30, especially if the “massively overvalued” franc and the risk of deflation continue to loom over the economy.

2.    EUR- Euro-zone Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Mon., Nov. 7, 5:00 am, ET.

In case the market decides to start paying attention to economic data rather than the headlines from Greece and other EU debt-ridden nations, the weakness in the Euro-zone economy is expected to continue with retail sales forecast to decline for another month by 0.2% m/m from the 0.3% m/m drop in the previous month.

3.    GBP- U.K. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Tues., Nov. 8, 4:30 am, ET.

With the Manufacturing PMI dipping below 50 into contraction territory, the U.K. industrial production is forecast to register an anemic increase by 0.1% m/m in September, compared with 0.2% m/m in August.

4.    CNY- China CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Tues., Nov. 8, 10:00 pm, ET.

Inflationary pressures in China are forecast to stage a larger decline to 5.4% y/y from 6.1% y/y in the previous month. Lower inflation could ease some of the concerns that the Chinese central bank may have lost its grip on inflation and could reduce the odds of more rate hikes by the PBOC. A decision by the Chinese central bank to refrain from raising the benchmark rate further could give the Chinese and the Australian economies a boost, and could lend support to the Australian dollar.

5.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Financial Stability Report on economic conditions, inflation and future monetary policy, Wed., Nov. 9, 4:00 pm, ET.

At its latest monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the markets with its hawkish stance on inflation and the potential for rate hikes in the near future. The bank would probably echo the same sentiment in its financial stability report, which could help the New Zealand dollar attract some bids.

6.    AUD- Australia Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Nov. 9, 8:30 pm, ET.

The Australian labor market is expected to cool off with slower job creation of up to 10,000 new jobs added in October, compared with the 20,400 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate rises to 5.3% from 5.2% in the previous month. If coupled with more risk aversion, a weak jobs report could become a significant risk event for the Aussie dollar.

7.    GBP- Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Nov. 10, 7:00 am, ET.

When it comes to the Bank of England’s future monetary policy, the unknown is not whether the bank will change the benchmark rate from its record low 0.5% level, but rather if there will be an expansion or a reduction in the bank’s quantitative easing operations. Policy makers recently decided to expand the Asset Purchase Program beyond the 200 billon-pounds ceiling by another 75 billion pounds, however the latest minutes report stated that “depending on developments in the euro area and financial markets, the size of the stimulus could be adjusted in either direction”. Although it still may be a bit of a long shot, if EU leaders succeed to put out the fire from the debt crisis and the U.K. economy strengthens, the size of the Asset Purchase Program could be reduced, and it would not be surprising to see the GBP benefiting from such scenario.

8.    USD- U.S. Jobless Claims, an important gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Thurs., Nov. 10, 8:30 am, ET.

Breaching below the 400K mark to 397K, first-time applications for unemployment benefits are forecast to inch higher to 402K, still above 375K- the number estimated by economists to signal significant decline in unemployment.

9.    GBP- U.K. PPI- Producer Price Index, the main measure of wholesale inflation and a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, Fri., Nov. 11, 4:30 am, ET.

Despite of the recent rise in the CPI to 5.2% y/y, producer prices in the U.K. are expected to register a slight pullback with the core PPI forecast to reach 3.7% y/y in October from 3.8% y/y in September.

10.    USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Nov. 11, 9:55 am, ET.

The preliminary consumer sentiment index estimate for November is forecast to bring another month of improvement with a reading of 61.1, compared with 60.9 in October. Should the upcoming U.S. economic reports manage to keep up with the October trend, more optimistic undertones in the U.S. economic data throughout the month of November would help rule out concerns of a double dip and could reduce QE3 odds ahead of the Fed’s next meeting on December 13.