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Sunday, January 22, 2012

Australian Dollar Weakness Ahead On Slowing Inflation ; John


Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

The Australian dollar advanced to a fresh monthly high of 1.0480 following the rise in risk-taking behavior, but the high-yielding currency may come under pressure next week as the fundamental outlook for the region deteriorates. Indeed, the 4Q Consumer Price report highlights the biggest event risk for the Aussie, and the development may trigger a selloff in the AUD/USD as the headline reading for inflation is expected to expand at a slower pace during the last three-months of 2011.
In turn, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to further reduce borrowing costs this year, and we will maintain a bearish outlook for the high-yielding currency as interest rate expectations remain weak. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see the RBA lowering the cash rate by another 100bp over the next 12-months, and the weakening outlook for growth and inflation is likely to heighten speculation for additional monetary support as the central bank tries to balance the risks surrounding the economy. At the same time, the slowing recovery in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – fosters a bearish outlook for the AUD/USD as the world’s second largest economy faces an increased risk for a ‘hard-landing,’ and we may see the RBA aggressively scale back the slew of rate hikes from 2009 as the region faces a protracted recovery.
As the rally in the AUD/USD tapers off ahead of 1.0500, the weakening outlook for growth and inflation is expected to drag on the exchange rate, and we expect to see a short-term reversal next week as long as the relative strength index holds below 70. However, as risk sentiment continue to dictate price action in the foreign exchange market, currency traders may turn a blind eye to the developments coming out of the $1T economy, and the high-yielding currency may continue to outperform against its major counterparts as it benefits from the rebound in risk-taking behavior

Currencies vs. USD Report..


Wednesday, January 18, 2012

For You Dad.. ❤ ♥ ❤



You know dad, looking back i realized something
and you what that is?
without you, i wouldn't be who i am, i'd be nothing
kind of like a pop without its fizz
you were there for when whever you could be
and when you couldn't
you did everything you could to support me
even if you said you shouldn't
you went out of your way
to do man of things for me
and i know you wouldn't have it anyother way
that i can see.
You spent your life teaching me, helping me, doing everything you could for me,
and everything that was said impossible, you proved wrong
that shows me the love you had for me
you did all this and more
as you sent me out in the world
afraid for me, but knowing i would be the man you set me out to be, and more

For that Father... Dad... daddy, i thank you
I love you so very much, more then you could ever imagine.

Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?

By John,


  • Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?
  • Euro: Easing Bond Auction Rates and Hope of a Greece Solution Offers Buoyancy
  • British Pound Bows to Euro’s Rebound as 16 Year High Jobless Rate Unbalances
  • Japanese Yen Slides as Risk Aversion Effort Curbed, But Not USDJPY
  • Australian Dollar Tumbles, Steadies after Volatile but Nuanced Jobs Release
  • New Zealand Dollar Plunges Immediately after Collapse in Inflation Pressure
  • Gold Rises for 10th Time Since the Beginning of the Year – 13 Trading Days

Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?
There is a difference between a true advance and a mere relief rally. The former is anchored in capital flows and fundamentals and therefore has greater momentum for staying power. The latter is by definition and disposition temporary. The advance we are seeing in high-yield and fundamentally troubled assets is more appropriately labeled a reprieve in a dominant trend. For evidence we can look at market-based factors of conviction (or lack thereof). For our risk-benchmark S&P 500 Index, volume has topped out at around 675 million shares that consistently since the beginning of the year – significantly weaker than the turnover we witness through the previous six months. Furthermore, we note that gauges for the cost of risk (implied volatility, options, relative asset value) are exceptionally cheap. Alone, this wouldn’t be an issue, but when we pair it with the fact that the World Bank downgraded its global growth outlook and warned to prepare for the worst, rating agencies are preparing to claim Greece in default and leverage is hitting new heights; the contrast is too clear. So, while the dollar may slide for now, its run isn’t complete.
Euro: Easing Bond Auction Rates and Hope of a Greece Solution Offers Buoyancy
The euro advanced against nearly all of its counterparts Wednesday (with the exception of the Swiss franc) and subsequently put up its best performance against the benchmark US dollar since November 11th. This must be optimism…right? If we take a look at the fundamental developments through the past session, it would seem that the financial strain on the region is easing and therefore the outlook for the currency improving. Yet, nothing has really turned from negative to positive. Rather, we are seen conditions turn from negative to less negative. A good example of this is the outcome for the session’s bond auctions. This time around, we monitored the sale of 2.5 billion euros in Portuguese debt (in fact, this was the biggest auction since the government asked for its bailout last April). The rate on the three-month maturity was unchanged and it eased for the six-month bill (lower rates reflect greater confidence). This may seem a strong outcome for a country that was downgraded to ‘junk’ by Standard & Poor’s this past Friday, but the meaning is the same as for the others this week (France, Greece, Spain, EFSF) – the maturity is too short-term and therefore not a good gauge.
Everything that we see behind the euro’s fundamental performance speaks to relief from an oversold position rather than a renewed effort to add to outstanding European asset exposure. This is certainly supported by the COT figures in which we have seen a record level of speculative short interest in the futures market. Whether the euro continues its relief rally or not likely depends on whether risk trends maintain their buoyancy and hope in a Greece private bond position can be fed. There is heavy debate and speculation, and a deadline of a Monday Summit.
British Pound Bows to Euro’s Rebound as 16 Year High Jobless Rate Unbalances
Considering the euro’s financial troubles have dragged the sterling lower (by threatening an impending doom as the Euro Zone crisis starts its global spread with a layover in London first), it is only fair that a subsequent rebound for the shared currency would relieve pressure on the pound. Yet, when we measure the two European currencies against each other, we can see clearly who the outperformer was. EURGBP advanced for a second day. The pound’s performance was no doubt undermined by thedisappointing November employment figures released in the previous London session. Jobless claims rose for a 10th month by a smaller-than-expected 1,200 positions. Tame as it was, loss of jobs still brought the unemployment rate to a 16-year high 8.4 percent. Adding to that consumer confidence printed just off a series record low.
Japanese Yen Slides as Risk Aversion Effort Curbed, But Not USDJPY
With risk trends on the rise, the safe haven / funding-favorite Japanese yen is naturally on the retreat. In fact, the currency was down against all of its most liquid counterparts – with the exception of its fellow safe haven US dollar, with which it was unchanged. Interestingly enough, despite the pickup in risk trends, the commodity block (Aussie, kiwi and Canadian dollars) were lagging the performance of the European contingent. In fact, it would be its fallen-from-grace safe haven compatriot – the Swiss franc – that posted the largest rally. This is another factor that suggests relief from European fundamental fears are more influential now than a genuine revival in risk appetite.
Australian Dollar Tumbles, Steadies after Volatile but Nuanced Jobs Release
Trading news events can be dangerous. The Australian data released this morning reminds us of this risk. After absorbing a notable uptick in consumer inflation expectations (running at 2.8 percent versus 2.4 percent previously) without a hiccup, we came upon the jobs figures. Despite the staid nature of this market, the reaction to the unexpectedly sharp decline in the headline labor change for December (29,300 positions culled) was dramatic. The immediate tumble for the commodity currency, however, was quickly retraced shortly after the panic receded after traders realized the losses were isolated to part-time positions (53,700). Full-time jobs actually rose by 24,500 positions.
New Zealand Dollar Plunges Immediately after Collapse in Inflation Pressure
The Kiwi dollar gives its Aussie counterpart a run for its money as the most volatile currency in the still young trading session. With the help of a surprise 4Q consumer inflation index release, the New Zealand dollar was spurred into a quick 60 pips slide against the benchmark greenback in early Asia trading. The kiwi dollar has found much of its strength through its high yield (2.50 percent benchmark) and the belief that Governor Alan Bollard was determined to stand pat. Yet, that was when price pressures were still well above his tolerance band. According to the data, it is now below the desired threshold with a 1.8 percent clip. We’ll watch to see if the market starts pricing in cuts in Libor rates.
Gold Rises for 10th Time Since the Beginning of the Year – 13 Trading Days
Though it has been a slow run (what is running quickly in these market conditions), gold has nevertheless advanced 10 times since the beginning of the year. That is a significant figure when we consider that there have only been 13 active trading sessions since we entered 2012. A tame risk appetite advance does little to curb this particular safe haven, because the brand of confidence we are seeing buoy fundamentally-troubled currencies and growth-dependent assets does not tap the deeper concern of long-term, store-of-value concerns.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

I'm The Girl...



I'm the girl who will put her head on your shoulder, not because she's sleepy, but because she wants to be closer to you...

I'm the girl who likes to be kissed in the rain, more than inside your bedroom or in an expensive resturant...

I'm the girl who says,"ok, but you owe me..." jokingly not because I actually want something, but because it means I get to spend more time with you...

I'm the girl you can take absolutely anywhere and I will (or at least try to) have fun because it means I am spending time with you...

I'm the girl who is incredibly picky, but when I find someone I like I want to spend the whole night curled up in their arms...

I'm the girl who never forgets all the sweet little things you do for me...

I'm the girl who actually keeps her body parts in her clothing in public... most of the time

I'm the girl who never gives up hope even when I tell others I have...

I'm the girl who once I let you into my heart, there's always a place there with your name on it. And even if we spend time apart, I'm the girl who never forgets you.

I'm the girl who loves to end a hug with a kiss...

I'm the girl who you can talk to about anything...

I'm the girl who laughs at your jokes...

I'm the girl who will have many inside jokes with you and will remember each one...

I'm the girl who will brag about you to all of my friends...

I'm the girl who will listen to you talk...

I'm the girl who really does want to be friends after a break up...

I'm the girl who loves it when you hug me for no apparent reason...

I'm the girl who loves it when you hug me from behind or kiss me on the forehead..

I'm the girl who loves you for you, and doesn't care what other people say about us...

I'm the girl who loves it when you introduce me to your friends as your girlfriend...

I'm the girl who loves the feeling when you take me by the hand without saying a word...