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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Gold Stocks Approaching a Crossroads

Recently, the Erste Group published a 120 page report covering precious metals. The report contains an absolute treasure of analysis, figures and charts concerning gold and the gold stocks. I have selected a few of the charts which help us explain the current status of the gold stocks. Essentially, there is a huge divergence between financial performance and valuations. Ultimately, the performance of the shares over the coming months will answer the question as to the resolution of that divergence.

We often hear how difficult of a time some mining companies are having. Although that is true, the reality is present conditions for gold miners have never been better. Rising costs are a problem but margins for the large unhedged producers are at bull market highs (and likely all-time highs).



The rising margins explain the consistent increase in cash flow and net income (with a few bumps) as the chart below depicts. Cash flow and net income for 2012 will also reach a bull market high.


Given the high margins, cash flow growth and record earnings why are the stocks struggling and trading well off their highs? A major and often forgotten explanation is the current low valuations. Several months ago, the price to cash flow valuation of senior producers was equivalent to valuation lows seen in 2000 and 2008. No chart better illustrates valuations then this one from BMO Capital Markets.


Now let’s examine the current technicals and draw a comparison between today’s bull market and the bull market from 1960 to 1980. Below we plot the current bull market in the HUI (red) and the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI). There are some differences but also some similarities. Note that the level 170 was key support and resistance for the BGMI for nearly five years. Once the Bgmi broke 170, it was headed much higher.


One can better view the current key pivot point from the chart below. The 52-55 range has been key support and resistance for GDX since late 2007. If and when GDX makes a weekly close above 55, you can bet that the prognosis will look quite bullish.


The market is at an interesting crossroads. Financial results have been strong but valuations are weak. The market believes earnings and cash flow will decline and has priced in that outcome to some degree. Ultimately, this will resolve itself in one of two ways. Producer margins can decline which would impact cash flows and profitability. That would eventually lead to lower share prices and GDX could threaten a break below 40. On the other hand, should margins increase then share prices will explode higher from a compounding effect. Rising margins will generate stronger cash flow and higher profits and the low valuations will rebound as sentiment would normalize. This is the fundamental case for the next major breakout in the gold shares.

 Given the technical damage from the recent selloff (which went a bit further than expected) one should not anticipate this crossroads to be resolved anytime soon. Think months rather than days or weeks. Ultimately, the shares will break 55 to the upside in 2013 thanks to the combination of a breakout in Gold combined with stable costs in 2013. 




#Christmas Rally Requires the SOX to Join In

The price action in the Phlx Semiconductor Index (SOX) is not looking good. Yet the SOX must rally for the Nasdaq to have a seasonal Christmas rally.

Large components are : INTC, AMD, MU, MRVL



We know that Intel has cut its guidance as .."the PC market is going into the toilet, and the global economy (ex-US) is plainly brutal". The performance of Intel (INTC) has been poor, therefore Intel needs to bounce to satisfy the need for a rally. They other question is can Apple Inc (AAPL) carry the NASDAQ all by itself? Watching and waiting.

The half cycle is when the cycle meets the zero line. When the half cycle is passed price action has little time to conform to the cycle dominance. If price action fails to conform then the cycle weakens.



Source: Readtheticker

Friday, October 5, 2012

Understanding Forex Margin and Leverage

What is Margin?
Using margin in Forex trading is a new concept for many traders, and one that is often misunderstood. Margin is a good faith deposit that a trader puts up for collateral to hold open a position. More often than not margin gets confused as a fee to a trader. It is actually not a transaction cost, but a portion of your account equity set aside and allocated as a margin deposit.
The advanced dealing rates window, found in the #FXCM Trading Station pictured below, will show you specifically how much margin is required to hold open one 10k position in a standard trading account. It is important to remember that this value represents one trading lot and that the amount of margin needed to hold open a position will ultimately be determined by trade size. As trade size increases your margin requirement will increase exponentially.





What is leverage?
Leverage is a byproduct of margin and allows an individual to control larger trade sizes. Traders will use this tool as a way to magnify their returns. It’s imperative to stress, that losses are also magnified when leverage is used. Therefore, it is important to understand that leverage needs to be controlled.
FXCM provides flexible leverage to its clients. You can trade with no leverage at all, or you can trade with a significant amount of leverage based off of your personal preferences. Let’s look at an example using effective leverage
Let’s assume a trader chooses to trade one mini lot of the USD/CAD. This trade would be the equivalent to controlling $10,000. Because the trade is 10 times larger than the equity in the trader’s account, the account is said to be leveraged 10 times or 10:1. Had the trader bought 20,000 units of the USD/CAD, which is equivalent to $20,000, their account would have been leveraged 20:1.





Effects of leverage
Using leverages can have extreme effects on your accounts if it is not used properly. Trading larger lot sizes through leverage can ratchet up your gains, but ultimately can lead to larger losses if a trade moves against you. Below we can see this concept in action by viewing a hypothetical trading scenario. Let’s assume both Trader A and Trader B have starting balances of $10,000. Trader A used his account to lever his account up to a 500,000 notional position using 50 to 1 leverage. Trader B traded a more conservative 5 to 1 leverage taking a notional position of 50,000. So what are the results on each traders balance after a 100 pip stop loss?
Trader A would have sustained a loss of $5,000, loosing near half their account balance on one position! Trader B on the other hand fared much better. Even though Trader B took a loss off 100 pips, the dollar value was cut to a loss of $500. Through leverage management Trader B can continue to trade and potentially take advantage of future winning moves. FXCM believes clients have a greater chance of long-term success when a conservative amount of leverage is used in their trading. Here is a recent study completed of thousands of FXCM accounts (“Traits of Successful Traders: How Much Capital Should I Trade Forex With?”). Keep this information in mind when looking to trade your next position and keepeffective leverage of 10 to 1 or less to maximize your trading.


---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Eurozone Recovery Continues



 2yr swap spreads have declined dramatically this year, and that's an excellent indication that the Eurozone financial system is once again liquid and healthy. This in turn is a good sign that the Eurozone economy is likely to be improving in coming months (i.e., swap spreads are good leading indicators of financial and economic health).

We can't say that the Eurozone is out of the woods yet, since more than a few countries have yet to address their fundamental problem: excessive public sector bloat and chronic deficits. But with the health of the financial markets restored, there is hope that fundamental reform is in the offing.


The Euro Stoxx index is up over 20% since early June, another early sign that things are starting to improve on the margin. I note that with this index is trading at about 10 times expected earnings, it is fair to say that Eurozone markets are still suffering from deep pessimism. As in the U.S., the Eurozone equity market is being driven not by optimism, but by a slow decline in pessimism; conditions have not turned out to be as bad as the market had feared.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Equities Rise With Inflation Expectations

The chart below provides strong support for my belief that equities are responding more to inflation expectations than they are to real growth expectations. That is consistent with the monetarist view that the Fed has very little control over real growth—you can't print your way to prosperity



The chart compares the S&P 500 to the market's forward-looking inflation expectations, the 5-yr, 5-yr forward implied inflation rate embedded in TIPS and Treasury prices.

Equities benefit from QE3 because it is likely to boost nominal GDP growth, but not necessarily real growth. Inflation is now much more likely than deflation, and future cash flows are likely to be better than expected.

This is all good news for now, but lurking in the shadows is the issue of how the Fed is going to reverse its quantitative easing in the future, and whether they can do it in a timely fashion to avoid inflation going too high.

Meanwhile, it's good to see Treasury bond yields and equities on the rise. Higher yields are symptomatic of an improved outlook.

Monday, September 10, 2012

The Business of the Federal Government is Redistribution

This post builds on an excellent post by Mark Perry. Money quote: "... the federal government has become an entitlements machine. As a day-to-day operation, it devotes more attention and resources to the public transfer of money, goods and services to individual citizens than to any other objective, spending more than for all other ends combined."

Mark's charts show the composition of federal spending and taxes as a share of total spending and total taxes; mine show them as a % of GDP. Note the relatively low level of defense spending today, even though it includes all the costs of foreign wars. Defense spending is dwarfed by transfer payments.


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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Global Recovery Perspective


Despite all the continuing problems in the Euro-zone (the #Euro Stoxx index is only up 38% from its recession lows, as compared to the 111% gain of the S&P 500), and the slowdown in China (the Shanghai Composite index is only up 25% from its October '08 lows), the global equity market has posted a 92% gain since early March '09, according to Bloomberg. We are still 20% below the 2007 highs, so it's still far from a complete recovery, but it's not unimpressive: global equity markets have recovered $23.6 trillion of their 2008-9 losses.


Jackson Hole Swing Trade

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke much awaited speech via Jackson Hole has all in 'wait mode'. If Ben doesn't deliver surely the financial s will suffer, and more so those financial s that have fingers in Europe crisis mess. Here is a swing trade to consider.




Goldman Sach traveled to $105 of weak volume, and now its waiting for direction. GS could follow the seasonal bearish September south if Ben speech has no.gif?lastmodified=201208270000ts in it. A bearish option spread seems the best play.


Monday, August 27, 2012

Time to Follow the Herd ; Jack Hough

          Investors continue to pull more money out of stock mutual funds than they are putting in. Should you join them?   

Net outflows were $3.2 billion for the week ended Aug. 15, according to data released Wednesday by the Investment Company Institute, a fund-industry trade group. Outflows have exceed $400 billion over the past five years.

One way to interpret the flow data is that, after 30 years of Treasury bonds offering better total returns than U.S. stocks, "the cult of equity is dying," to borrow a phrase from bond king Bill Gross's August investment outlook. If investors are losing their appetite for stocks, maybe it is time to take profits.

Then again, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index's 13% total return so far this year hardly suggests stocks have lost their shine. Maybe the outflows mean the famously dumb herd is getting it wrong again, and that more handsome returns are in store for stocks.

Which reading is right? Neither, for two reasons -- one of which points to some important actions investors should take.

The first reason is that it is far from clear that mutual-fund flows predict stock-market returns.

During periods where the two measures seem to track each other, it seems more likely that investors chase stock-market returns rather than the other way around, says Brian Boyer, a visiting finance professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who examined more than a half-century of fund flows and returns for a paper published in the Journal of Empirical Finance in 2009.

In other words, investors who are trying to read the market's next move in fund flows might as well be asking a Magic 8 Ball. ...

 
Investors Aren't Fleeing

The second reason is that a close look at the flows suggests investors aren't exactly fleeing stocks now.

For one thing, net outflows are tiny relative to the amount of money investors have in stock funds -- less than one-half of 1% this year, says Matthew Lemieux, an analyst at data firm Lipper.

Also, while investors have pulled money out of stock mutual funds this year, they have added an even greater amount to stock exchange-traded funds, according to Lipper.

That isn't quite the death of equities, but it is a serious maiming of equity fees. ETFs tend to passively track indexes and carry lower costs than actively managed mutual funds, says Todd Rosenbluth, a mutual-fund analyst at S&P Capital IQ.

As for the larger outflows of the past five years, they partly are explained by the baby boomers beginning to turn 65 last year, says Shelly Antoniewicz, an economist at the Investment Company Institute. Investors typically sell some stocks and buy more bonds in retirement because the latter are generally less prone to sharp price swings.

The outflows also are a reasonable response to the stock plunge that hit bottom in March 2009, Ms. Antoniewicz says.

ICI research shows that fewer investors are going all-in on stocks these days, and more are seeking diversification. Money is flowing into bond funds and into hybrid funds that invest in both stocks and bonds.

Flows also are positive this year for funds that hold non-U.S. stocks. That seems more a sensible rebalancing of positions than return-chasing. U.S. shares have gained 20.4% over the past year, versus 1.7% for shares in the rest of the world, according to index publisher MSCI.

Come to think of it, the herd hasn't looked so dumb lately.

Take the move to ETFs. On average over the past decade, 57% of active fund managers failed to beat their benchmark indexes after fees, according to S&P. Last year, 84% underperformed.

With mutual funds, you don't get what you pay for. Rather, what you pay comes directly out of what you get. So pay less. This column has long recommended low-cost mutual funds and ETFs from Vanguard Group, Charles Schwab (SCHW: 13.10, -0.17, -1.28%) and others.

Investors who haven't rebalanced their portfolios lately should consider following the herd. The easiest way to get global diversification is with an all-world ETF like Vanguard Total World Stock (VT: 47.35, -0.02, -0.04%), which costs $22 a year per $10,000 invested, plus a commission to buy and sell. It has a 42% stake in the U.S., which more or less reflects the weighting of U.S. shares in the world.
Rebalancing Act

A cheaper route -- and one that allows for more U.S. exposure for those who want it -- is to use two separate funds and rebalance them from time to time. For example, Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI: 72.24, -0.01, -0.01%) and Schwab International Equity (SCHF: 25.25, -0.01, -0.04%), both ETFs, cost just $6 and $13 a year per $10,000 invested, respectively.

For a bond ETF, SPDR Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond (LAG: 58.96, 0.06, 0.10%) offers broad exposure to Treasurys, mortgage securities, corporate bonds and more. It costs less than $18 a year per $10,000.

To figure out how much to put in stocks versus bonds, either pay a financial planner to tell you or search online for "Vanguard portfolio allocation models" to see how nine different mixes of stocks and bonds have historically performed.

The past 30 years aside, stock-heavy portfolios have generally provided higher long-term returns, but also deeper single-year declines.

The three "balanced" portfolios Vanguard recommends call for mixes of 60/40, 50/50 and 40/60. If you aren't sure, one of those is a good place to start.

Monday, July 9, 2012


AUDUSD Classic Technical Report 07.10.2012





And back with love Aussie...
#AUDUSD -->
Prices are approaching support at 1.0120, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, a barrier reinforced by a rising trend line set from early June. A break below this boundary targets 0.9992. Alternatively, a break back above resistance at 1.0213, the 38.2% Fib, exposes the 50% barrier at 1.0290.

Sunday, July 8, 2012


Why Do Most Traders Lose Money? By Jeremy Wagner, Lead Trading Instructor


The fact is that 
most traders, regardless of how intelligent and knowledgeable they may be about themarkets, lose money. Are the markets really so enigmatic that few can profit or are there a series ofcommon mistakes that befall many traders? The answer is the latter.
The good news is that the problem, while it can be emotionally and psychologically challenging, can be solved by using solid risk management techniques.
Today, we will discuss 2 key aspects of risk management.
Winning & Losing        
  1. Risk a little to make a lot – use at least a 1:2 risk to reward ratio
  2. Risk a small portion of your account – risk less than 5% of your account on all open trades

    Use at least a 1:2 Risk to Reward Ratio
    We went through extensive research on the behaviors why most traders lose. Most traders losmoney simply because they do not understand or adhere to good money management practices.
Part of money management is essentially determining your risk before placing a trade. Without a sense of money managementmany traders hold on to losing positions far too long, but take profits on winning positions prematurely. The result is a seemingly paradoxical scenario that in reality is all too common: the tradeends up having more winning trades than losing trades, bustill loses money (see chart above).
To resolve this paradox, establish your risk and reward parameters ahead of time. Insist on taking trades that offer at least a 1:2 risk to reward ratio. This means that for every pip of risk you are taking in the trade, seek out at least 2 pips of potential reward. By doing so, you are relieving the pressure from yourself to have to be right in the trade.
You can be right only 50% of the time when using a 1:2 risk to reward ratio to give yourself a shot at consistent returns.


Risk no more than 5%
However, there is another element to consistent risk management. How much of your account are you risking?
Too often, I hear from clients via twitter or during our live webinars that they are risking a small amount, just 20 pips on the trade. However, the true risk on the trade is how much of your account balance are you exposing?
Is it possible that Trader A can have a stop loss set at 10 pips and risk more than Trader B with a 50 pip stop loss? Yes!


As you can see from the above example, the trade size (and resulting cost per pip) multiplied by your stop distance determines your risk on the trade.
We suggest risking no more than 5% of your account balance on all open trades. That way, if you are wrong (and we established from the first key point that it is ok to be wrong 50% of the time), then you still have over 95% of your account balance available to trade tomorrow.
The formula to calculate risk on the trade is:
Cost per pip X pip’s risked = Account Balance Risked
For example, if I’m trading the AUDJPY with a current pip cost of $1.25 per 10k position, then a trade with 50 pips of risk is $62.50 risked in my account.
[ $1.25 X 50 pips = $62.50 ]

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Australian Dollar Outlook - 03/12/2012


Aussie slips against the US$ on the back of Greece reaching a solution which has averted a technical default.
Australia: The Aussie Dollar sold off against the US overnight and is currently trading at 1.0570. China had two releases on Friday, the PPI which came in at 0.0, lower than the forecast of +.01% YoY, and lower than the previous months +0.7%. The CPI printed at +3.2%, also lower than the +3.4% expected and the prior +4.5%.
These numbers will add to the debate of further interest rate easing by the Chinese Central Bank.
Commodities generally had a good night with base metals rallying almost across the board. Copper rose 2.0%, nickel ended up 2.7% and ally rose1.6%.
Gold ended the session up US$15.50 to be trading at US $1,711.50 an ounce for the April Futures while oil is trading at US$107.40 a barrel.
There is no local Australian data due for release today and it is a Labour Day Holiday in VIC, TAS & ADL
Majors: US Treasury yields were again higher for third day in a row while US equity markets ended up slightly. Friday night saw the release of the US Non -farm Payrolls for February which reported a rise of 227,000 better than the market expected for a rise of 210,000 raising optimism for a US recovery.
The US unemployment rate is now at 8.35% which is at a three year low. The USD further strengthened against most currencies, extending gains against the Euro and rising to a 10 month high against the Japanese Yen after the jobs numbers. Greece announced that the deal to swap Greek bonds for new ones with a big haircut (75% NPV) was accepted by 85% of Greek law bond holders and the Government triggered the retrospective collective action clause which meant that a total "acceptance "was 95.7%.
Equity markets in Europe reacted positively after Greece managed to finalise a successful debt swap deal with Frankfurt
+0.7%, Paris +0.3% and London +0.5%.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) said that "we do not foresee a significant impact of the Greek credit event on financial markets" because the exposures, were relatively small, publicly known and mostly subject to
collateral.



Tuesday, March 6, 2012

S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

The S&P 500 and US Dollar are flirting trend-defining technical levels, with the path of least resistance favoring losses for shares and gains for the greenback.



S&P 500 – Unchanged from yesterday: “Positioning remains indecisive as prices test the 1358.60-1376.10 area, with a narrow bullish breakout late last week again falling short on follow-through. Negative RSI divergence still points to fading upward momentum, warning of a reversal lower. A break below 1358.60 initially exposes 1337.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a sustained push higher targets the 1400 figure.”

Friday, March 2, 2012

What Makes A Good Relationship?



Be it a guy or a girl, even if you have been in a relationship for years, you will still not be able to put down the exact ingredients of a good relationship. So, what makes a good relationship? Is it just love? Is it just trust? Or is it just compatibility? It is a mixture of all of these and much more. Here is my recipe for a good relationship which contains the traits of a healthy relationship!
Ingredients
The following ingredients will be required to cook up a good relationship.
  • Love – Well, lets face it, a relationship without love, is kind of abysmal.
  • Romance – Romance adds the butterflies in the stomach, even to regular activities.
  • Respect – If two people don’t respect each other, co-existence is near impossible.
  • Passion – Having passion in a relationship is like having salt in a recipe. Without it, there will be color, but no taste.
  • Empathy – Empathy is very important in a relationship. Lack of empathy would render the relationship abusive.
  • Understanding – It is important to be able to understand each other. It is through understanding that a connection develops, and respect and love can be discovered.
  • Acceptance – If you are in a relationship with a person, you need to accept him/her for what he/she is. If you have it in the back of your mind that you will eventually change him, then the relationship will not work out.
  • Friendship – Basically, in a relationship, you need to be able to laugh at each other, cry with each other and yell at each other. Who better to do that than a friend?
These are the basic, most important ingredients of a good relationship. Mix them up in the quantities that you see fit, based on your and your partner’s nature. But, for you to understand the mixing, you need to understand the ingredients. Let’s move on to that aspect of the relationship advice.
Love:
Love is that which holds everything together. It is the basic ingredient. Like, if you were cooking chicken, love would be the chicken of your recipe. Love is the reason why you are making the effort of bringing in the other ingredients. However, if this ingredient gets too much importance, it would be wrong. Like, you cannot have only chicken in your dish, right? You need to add spices, and other ingredients. Just like that, a relationship with only love, will meet its end in a dump! Read more on love and relationship.
Romance:
There is a very good saying for men in relationships, if you want your woman to be your princess forever, be her prince forever. That means, the couple needs to keep the romance and the charm alive. Romance is the break from the mundane everyday duties. The vacation from regularity that you need. So, keep a regular balance of romance, to maintain a good relationship.
Passion:
Sex is very important in a marriage. True statement. However, more than the sex, passion is important. There should be a longing in the couple for each other. It is passion that makes each touch, each kiss, each blink of the eye mean a lot more than that which meets the eye. You see those aging couples walking hand in hand, it is the passion that keeps them there. The passion to stay together despite the odds, that is what makes a good relationship.
Empathy:
Lack of empathy in a relationship would spell doom for it. You need to have a basic know how about the other person. How they think, how they react and how they behave. It is this empathy that makes a couple manage living with each other for a longer time. It is this empathy that helps a couple do those small, small things that make the other person happy. Have you heard those women who go “Oh, that is just how he is!” or men say things like “That’s my girl”? That is out of empathy!
Understanding and Acceptance:
Understanding and acceptance go hand in hand. In a relationship, it is important to understand the other person. Why they did what they did? It is the understanding that overlooks the jealousy. More so, acceptance is required in a relationship. If you cannot accept the person for what they truly are, then the relationship will be a farce. A good relationship is made by two people who understand each other and accept each other with the flaws.
Friendship:
Friendship is that ingredient which adds the magic to the relationship. If two people can be lovers and friends at the same time, they have a complete relationship. Friendship allows the two to laugh together at their silliness, yell at each other for the mistakes and cry with each other for the losses. How complete do you feel in company of a friend? That is the feeling that you will have with a partner, if you both share friendship in your relationship as well! More on managing relationships.
While the amount and the percentage of all these ingredients may have differed from person to person, each ingredient is important for a good relationship. This is where I sign off! Happy loving!

How to Make Someone Fall in Love with You

                                                    By Farouk Radwan


Myths About Making Someone Love You
Do you think that love is just an uncontrollable random process?
Do you think that if the person you loved didn't love you back then nothing can be done about it?
Do you think that you can't make someone fall in love with you?
The Truth About Making Someone Fall in Love with You
Most of us believe that love is completely random and can never be controlled or manipulated. However, the shocking truth is that love and hatred are fully controlled by the mind. If you can come to understand the logic behind that mind's operation then you will have a good chance of making someone fall in love with you.
Love is just like any other psychological emotion you experience. Just as there are ways for dealing with and controlling stress, learning about the psychology of falling in love can be used to your advantage to make someone fall in love with you. This won't work one hundred percent of the time, but it will at least double or even triple your chances of making that person fall in love with you.
How to Make Someone Fall in Love with You
The following are methods and ways that can help you in making someone fall in love with you. Note that most of them are based on the psychology of falling in love and if you don't know what that is, you'd better take a quick look first.
I have what you need: when people search for a partner, they unconsciously try to find someone who is similar to what they like about themselves and at the same time different from what they hate about themselves. For example, someone who feels inferior but is also intelligent will seek an intelligent but confident partner. If this resembles the person you are targeting, playing the role of an incredibly confident person can be very effective, simply because you will be sending a message to his/her subconscious mind saying "I have what you need". On the other hand try to do your best to show that you have some common interests (don't lie, just search for what's common between you).
Meeting Criteria: Inside the mind of every one of us is a quick list of basic criteria that must be met before we even consider loving a person. Although meeting these criteria does not neccessarily mean that we will love the person, not meeting any of them makes it certain that we will never love him. Examples of these criteria can be: “He must be a non smoker“, “He must be religious” ...etc. You should try to know the background of the person you like and attempt to meet his basic criteria, else you will be rejected before you even begin.
Does Trying Harder Work? : Does repeatedly trying to approach a person work, or does chasing him or asking him out several times work?
Doing these things will most likely work if your partner is externally dependent. External dependancy is being dependant on something or someone to make you feel good or to escape your bad mood. When someone becomes externally dependant, it's likely he'll jump at the first chance of getting into a relationship. If the person you are targeting is externally dependant then your chances of making him fall in love you becomes higher. That's why caring for someone when he's down gives you a great chance of being loved by him because at these times people become more externally dependant
Program his Subconscious Mind: The subconscious mind can be made to accept something by continious repetition. This doesn't mean that you should call your partner every five minutes, as that would be chasing his/her conscious mind. Chasing the subconscious mind requires no more than staying in sight, and letting him/her see you a lot. Even if you hardly talk, just staying in his/her sight is enough to enforce your position.
More Subconscious Mind Programming : If you have mutual friends then you are even more lucky, since the subconscious mind is programmed much easier by trusted sources. The more your friends talk to him/her about how great you are (something you'll probably have to arrange) the better your chances of having a place in his/her subconscious mind.
Please don't misuse this Information
This kind of information should only be used when you are serious about a relationship and not just for playing around. Please be grown up enough to know that people have got feelings and that hurting their feelings just to feel victorious is something that is far from being mentally healthy.